Kaalama DeepDive: Crypto Whale Alerts and Movement Analysis (KDD)

We share all our Crypto trading moves with you in our KCP Club. It is the easiest way if you do not have much time but still want to make money from the fast growing Cryptocurrency market.

In KCP Club we only share with you the final results of our analysis, but here at Kaalama DeepDive: Crypto Whale Alerts and Movement Analysis (KDD) we share with you the tools and steps that we use to analyse crypto whales.

Crypto Whale Analysis Method

Step 1: US and Global Economy

Crypto Market is no exception but a part of the entire world economy. Therefore, are we bullish or bearish in following markets?

If these markets are bullish or at least sideways, we may consider it as a good sign for the crypto market. We could presume that money is still in circulation and we are, especially the US economy, not in a recession or a depression. Therefore we expect the market to move up in the medium and long term.

However, we should keep watching for long term and short term debt cycles that may crash everything down within a few days or weeks.

Following markets are what we monitor,

In addition we monitor,

If the above markets are favourable we could expect a bullish market in Crypto in general despite any temporary market corrections.

Step 2: Bitcoin Market Cycle

We may then understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle and its relationship with the alt-coins. Unfortunately, we do not have any long term data for bitcoin but shall keep an eye on the 4-year bitcoin market cycle and bitcoin dominance chart.

With this chart, we speculate a possible bear market for bitcoin even if the global economies are bullish.
When BTC.D is high, altcoins are cheaper. Whales who are interested in accumulating altcoins may wait till a higher value.

Step 3: Bitcoin Market Sentiment

We may understand the market sentiment mainly from social media and news. If fear is fueled up, it could be due to the FUD generated by big players in order to accumulate crypto at bargain prices.

If greed is fueled up, it could be due to the FOMO generated to support a bullish sentiment but may eventually turn into a bearish phase when big players start dumping at higher prices.

The following chart could be used as one indicator to see through the FUD or FOMO in the market and understand the true future direction.

Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) [Pending]

Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) = Market Cap of BTC in USD / Market cap of all Stablecoins in USD

An increase in this ratio could be interpreted as an increase in selling pressure and vice versa.

SSR could be considered as one of the most important indicators of market sentiment.

Step 4: Bitcoin Whale Movements

Whether we agree or not, big players manipulate the crypto markets since there are not many regulations enforced compared to stock or other regular markets. Yet, if we look, we can clearly see what they do.

Thus, with the above information and various methods of technical analysis, we build a hypothesis for “What Crypto Whales might be doing now?” and try to find evidence to back it up with the below information.

Value Sender Recipient Date
This information is interesting, but not nearly sufficient for decision making. See the below charts to understand the meaning of that statement.
BTC: All Exchanges Reserve [Pending] All Stablecoins: All Exchanges Reserve [Pending]

This is the amount of total BTC held in the wallets of all exchanges.

Whales do not generally keep BTC in exchanges, but if they do it might mean that they intend to sell, buy altcoin or even margin trading.

This is essentially a relative value and therefore should be understood with respect to previous months and years.

This is the amount of all stablecoins that are held in the wallets of all exchanges.

Huge amounts of money generally do not come to exchanges from retail investors but whales. Whales do not save money on exchanges either.

Therefore, they may intend to buy BTC or other crypto if this number increases. Again it is a relative value.

Stablecoins Ratio (USD) [Pending]

Stablecoins Ratio (USD) = BTC Reserve in USD / Stablecoins reserve in all exchanges. The above two charts may not give us a clear idea of what those numbers mean with respect to each other. Thus, The stable coin Ratio is very important if not the most important whale tracking indicator.

An increase in this ratio means that there are more BTC in exchanges compared to stable coins which have a potential high selling pressure.

(Why would whales keep more BTC than stablecoins in their pockets or vice versa?)

Whale Wallet Transactions [Pending]
Bubbles shown in the chat illustrate the prices where big transactions took place. When we see more or larger bubbles, it could be where whales buy or sell their BTC. We should probably follow the same path.
Vertical Volume Chart [Pending]

This is a different presentation of the Whale Wallet Transactions chart.

Instead of bubbles, the volumes of selected whale transactions are shown as a vertical histogram.

When we see long volume bars, it could be where whales buy or sell their BTC.

Step 5: Enter and Exit Trades

Based on the whale alerts observed at step 3 and technical analysis, we enter and exit from BTC trades.

In the case of altcoins, if the fundamentals are strong, we may assume that altcoins shall follow the price patterns of BTC in the medium term as well but with more volatility.

With this method of trading, we do not need to keep watching 15 minutes or 60 minutes time frames but focus on 4 hour to 1 week time frames and expect to trade once or twice a week maximum.

All the best.

Dr. Buddika Adikari

Founder of Kaalaama.org and Kaalama Crypto Pro - The Copy Trading Club

B.Sc (Moratuwa), PhD (Surrey, UK)

© Buddika R B Adikari All Rights Reserved.