Do you know why it’s difficult to predict the crypto market?
Mathematically speaking, a normal dataset follows the normal distribution (aka Gaussian Distribution / bell curve) and therefore it’s not very difficult to predict the pattern with basic technical analysis.
However, in crypto space it’s not that easy and I believe it’s due to three main reasons.
As soon as a news hits the market the dataset becomes no longer normal but offsets to a new high or low violating our technical analysis.
Big players know about TA better than retail trades (they employ highly skilled analysts and advanced bots for the job) and they can easily foresee the TA based actions by retail investors. Thus, they place bets against you in order to suck your money out of your pockets which makes your TA completely uselese.
However, they are keen not to destroy the entire market by over polluting, which is why retailers should be more careful.
All asset markets are driven by borrowed money which is common in crypto market as well. However, time to time liquidations hit the market mainly due to market manipulation and reckless traders with high leveraged positions. It’s a topic for another day but in simple words, liquidations may cause domino effect and puch a market in to a sudden down trend for even days and months.
In such situation, normal distribution becomes completely useless and so is our TA.
Therefore, I believe that we need to have a robust trading strategy to face any of above challenges without hesitation.
Our solution is the Hodling Trader Strategy (more details are in the pinned posts of this group).
All the best.
Dr. Buddika Adikari (Ph.D)
#btc #crypto #cryptocurrency #bitcoin
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